By Anthony Dane (8 August 2011)

I attended a discussion on Friday at the University of Cape Town (UCT) hosted by the Environmental Policy Research Unit. The focus of the discussion was on what to expect from the 17^th Conference of the Parties (COP-17) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in Durban at the end of this year. The key speaker was Harald Winkler, an Associate Professor in the Energy Research Centre at UCT and a member of the South African delegation to the negotiations under the UNFCCC.

Winkler highlighted three main questions that South Africa hopes will be answered in Durban:

1. How will we operationalise what was agreed at Cancun and address of the gaps from the Bali process?
2. Is there a future for the Kyoto Protocol?
3. Are we negotiating a new track or not (what will be the legal form of what is negotiated)?

The process leading up to Durban has been interesting, but generally disappointing. Copenhagen (COP-15) achieved a political agreement, but was basically a failure. Cancun (COP-16) is generally regarded as having saved the process and made some incremental progress, notably with regard to REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). Leading up to COP-17 are a variety of other meetings (and get-togethers that probably have very specific names: words have been hotly contested in this process). The challenge is to agree on a negotiating text ahead of Durban. Time is running out: COP-17 takes place from the 28^th of November to the 9^th of December.

What are the key operational elements to be discussed?

This question needs to be considered with regard to the Bali building blocks: Adaptation, Mitigation, Technology and Finance.

Adaptation

• While the issue of adapting to the physical impacts of climate change has gained prominence, the heart of the deal focuses on mitigation (reducing emissions and enhancing carbon sinks) and finance.

Mitigation

• A key issue is around ambition as it relates to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Target emission reductions (as committed to following COP-15) would still cause an increase in average global temperatures of roughly 3.5^oC. Science suggests that we need to limit the increase in average global temperature to 1.5 ^oC to avoid dangerous climate change.

• The second key issue is around transparency; for example what will be the rules that govern the measuring, reporting and verifying of emissions data?

Finance

• The short term agreement regarding finance will allocate 50% to adaptation and 50% to mitigation. There is no such agreement regarding long term finance and there is a concern, especially from developing countries such as South Africa, that adaptation will be left out.

Technology

• Agreement is still needed on the nature of the required institutions.

One of the more significant debates relates to how you classify countries. The structure of Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 countries is deeply embedded in the Kyoto Protocol. However the stark difference between these countries when the Kyoto Protocol was ratified is less evident today. This debate is therefore fundamental to agreeing on a fair approach to individual country’s responsibilities.

What does the future hold?

The Kyoto Protocol reflects a detailed set of rules that many wish to continue. Contrary to popular understanding, the Kyoto Protocol does not come to an end after 2012. This represents the end of the first commitment period.

Many countries, such as South Africa, are hoping for a new treaty in addition to the Kyoto Protocol second commitment period. This would be a transitional arrangement. Other countries don’t want a treaty at all and would rather opt for a pledge and commit situation.

What does South Africa want to see come out of COP-17?

South Africa would obviously not want COP-17 to be remembered as the death of the Kyoto Protocol. While the UNFCCC remains the key platform for international climate negotiations at the moment, this could change. There is broad agreement that Durban will not result in a new treaty. The question is whether it will set the stage for a new treaty or represent the start of a pledge and commit situation.

South Africa will want to see positive outcomes with regard to adaptation: a key issue in Africa. Additionally, we will want to agree on mechanisms to enable support for mitigation (such as the Clean Development Mechanism and other options that will help fund the country’s mitigation efforts).

So what do I expect?

Although I am looking forward to COP-17, I left this discussion not really knowing what to expect from the Durban meeting. I think until we see the negotiating text it is hard to make any reasonable predictions but I am looking forward to it. Incite will be there launching the 2011 JSE 100 Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) report with the National Business Initiative (NBI). While I think COP-17 will be a success, I am still not entirely sure what success looks like. I think the problem is that no-one really does.